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Series Preview : Tigers @ Sox

2010/08/13

After a less than inspiring series against the Hated Rival Twins, it’s nice to catch the soft underbelly Tigers pitching staff.  One wonders if this might be a three team race had the Tigers not been hit so hard with the injury bug, but I think even had Ordonez and others stayed healthy, the Tigers’ pitching rotation is so poor beyond Verlander-Scherzer that it might not have mattered.

Here’s how the two clubs stack up on paper. (RAA=Runs Above Average):

RAA Sox Tigers Edge
Batting -15 15.7 Tigers
Fielding -16.4 6.8 Tigers
Rotation 49.6 -19 Sox
Bullpen 20.5 4.2 Sox
Total 38.7 7.7 Sox

Using StatCorner’s neat-o scouting tool, we get a snapshot of what each Tiger hurler brings to the bump.

Bonderman
Pitch % Sp K BB GB
Fastball 38% 90 30 65 70
Sinker 28% 91 30 60 45
Slider 22% 83 75 55 30
Change 12% 84 60 20 40
Overall 60 55 55

Pre-injury days, Bonderman was once quite  the beast. Don’t let his 4.96 ERA fool you, Bonderman has battled his way back into respectability. His fastball velocity is down a tick or four, but he still generates plenty of whiffs with that slider of his.

Porcello
Pitch % Sp K BB GB
Fastball 39% 91 70 65 80
Sinker 33% 90 30 70 70
Change 13% 82 35 35 50
Slider 8% 82 40 20 20
Curve 6% 77 55 20 20
Overall 35 45 75

Rick Porcello is just 21 years old. Rick Porcello has also had the living snot kicked out of him this season, but believe it or not, his FIP is actually slightly better than it was last season. (4.77-4.68) Fastball: good. Secondary stuff: bad.

Armando Galarraga
Pitch % Sp K BB GB
Fastball 46% 90 25 25 50
Slider 35% 85 60 75 55
Change 15% 84 35 30 45
Overall 55 45 50

Pobody’s nerfect.

Now for the Simulator 4000!

(Quick explanation: Using ZiPS rest of season projections, CHONE defensive projections this contraption finds the expected runs scored/allowed, simulates the series 10,000 times and then spits out the results.)

image yanked Roar of the Tigers.

The computer says we win, so of course, we will win.

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