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Weighing Beckham’s loss

2010/08/09

God forbid Gordon Beckham has to go on the DL with this groin injury, but if he does, what does it mean to the White Sox? I think most sane people realize Brent Lillibridge isn’t he better player despite what his batting average currently says. Contrary to some common beliefs, lineup and roster decisions should always be based on the projected mean the players is going to hit, not on slumps or hot streaks.

ZiPS projects Beckham will hit for a .331 wOBA for the rest of the season. Lillibridge projects a mere .289 wOBA. Their defense at the keystone is about the same. Getting down to the nitty gritty, the value of Beckham over Lillibridge is .04 runs per game.  If Beckham hits the DL, that’s 0.6 runs.  Losing Beckham for the rest of the season would hurt. Losing him for a couple of weeks wouldn’t be unbearable.

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