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Twins @ Sox Series Preview

2010/08/09
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I have nothing good to say about the Baltimore series thus far. Split, dang it. Split!

This Twins-Sox series just might have some playoff implications. And I am a little afraid. The Twins are a really good at baseball and probably should be way ahead in this division.  Getting to the nerdery, according to BaseRuns — a run estimator that gives us the number of runs a team “should” have scored given their component statistics — the Twins should have a .593 winning percentage. The White Sox “should” have .539 winning percentage.  The White Sox have benefited from an easy schedule and have benefited on some luck on both sides of the ball  – pitching and hitting.

Now to enter into trained monkey mode and pass along some stats I collected on the interwebs for your perusal.

Runs Above Avg. Sox Twins EDGE
BATTING 4 78.4 Twins
FIELDING -16.4 22.7 Twins
ROTATION 133 114.8 Sox
BULLPEN 46.6 21.8 Sox
Total 167 237.7 Twins

The White Sox have the best starting rotation and bullpen in all of baseball, if you didn’t know that already. The Twins are right behind the Red Sox and Yankees in the batting department. It’s the whole unstoppable force and immovable object thing taking place here, if only we could get Madden in the booth with the Hawk. The Twins should also be commended for shoring up their fielding, which was pretty bad last year.

The bad news is that it appears Lillibridge will be replacing Gordon Beckham and his impeccable hair and awakening bat. Lillibridge has been swinging a hot stick himself this season, but clearly you want Beckham over Lillibridge any day. The good news is the Sox will get Glen Perkins instead of Kevin Slowey in the second game of the series.

Here’s a look at what the Twins pitchers throw, Lookout Landing style. This is the 20-80 scale on each category.

BAKER
Pitch % Sp K BB GB
Fastball 55% 91 80 80 25
Slider 19% 82 55 80 35
Change 12% 82 45 70 35
Sinker 8% 90 40 50 40
Curve 6% 79 45 70 50
Overall 75 80 25
PERKINS
Pitch % Sp K BB GB
Fastball 74% 90 50 75 60
Change 12% 83 40 80 30
Slider 9% 82 35 25 50
Overall 30 75 45
Liriano
Pitch % Sp K BB GB
Fastball 34% 91 60 20 50
Slider 25% 85 80 75 55
Sinker 23% 93 40 50 65
Change 18% 84 75 60 50
Overall 80 45 60

After looking like he might not be a Tommy John success story, Liriano is having a Cy Young caliber season. He’s 2nd in the league in WAR (5.5) behind Cliff Lee (5.6).

Finally, I plugged in the lineups in my the fun simulator tool provided by Steve Sommer and out-popped this Kreskin-like result.

A sweep for either team is an unlikely outcome and the odds are actually (but barely) in the Sox’s favor to win the series because of Glen Perkins. But seeing how the Orioles just took the Sox lineup back to their April’s woes, nothing would surprise me now.

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One Comment leave one →
  1. John permalink
    2010/08/10 11:29 PM

    We have to beat these guys. I hate the Twins. All they do is *** and moan about everything, all of them, they’re little (***), all of ’em. I really hate the Twins. Compared to the Twins, I love the Cubs. Let me make this clear: I hate the Twins.

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