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Series Preview: Sox at Yankees

2010/04/29

Sanity prevails, Juan Pierre has been removed from the lead-off spot. The bad news is Carlos Quentin will miss at least another game.  In my simulation I altogether removed him from the lineup and replaced him with Mark Kotsay, although at this point trying to guess what lineup Ozzie will trot out there next is an exercise in futility. Beckham and Teahen both sound like options to lead off according to Guillen, Teahen at this point makes the most sense with the patient approach he’s taken as of late.

I don’t think I have to tell you that the Yankees are an incredibly good team. There’s really not a weak spot in their lineup, other than Brett Gardner, and what Gardner doesn’t do on offense he makes up for on defense. I wish we had Nick Swisher back. Sigh. I wish we had Ryan Sweeney back. Sigh again. Here’s the Yankees Galaxy of Goodness:

Name wOBA DEF/150 RC/Game
Jeter 0.357 -1 0.672
Johnson 0.376 0 0.728
Teixeira 0.371 1 0.695
A-Rod 0.394 -2 0.766
Cano 0.364 -1 0.640
Posada 0.355 -4 0.594
Granderson 0.354 0 0.574
Swisher 0.354 -3 0.557
Gardner 0.319 10 0.426

Nick Johnson and Mark Teixeira have not hit for beans yet this season, but they’ve been struck by the bad-luck BABIP fairy. For the pitching, we run into our old friend Javier Vazquez, who already misses the National League.

Starter Starter ERA IP/GS Bullpen ERA
Garcia 5.15 5 3.8
Danks 4.12 6 3.8
Buehrle 4.32 6 3.8
Starter Starter ERA IP/GS Bullpen ERA
Pettitte 4.09 6 4.2
Vazquez 3.54 6.3 4.2
Hughes 4.03 5.3 4.2

Using Rest of Season ZiPS, and running the sim 10,000 times, I present to you the ugly results.

A-Rod lights up a cuban and celebrates another Yankees series win. Or at least the simulation projects he will.

Edit: I guess Quentin is going to DH, so here’s the sim after the lineup re-jiggering.

Swept! 25.7%
1 44.9%
2 24.8%
Sweep! 4.7%

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6 Comments leave one →
  1. Jay permalink
    2010/04/29 11:07 PM

    Just found your blog from MLB Trade Rumors. I’m a white sox fan and am just finishing up reading “Moneyball”. Have very little knowledge of sabermetrics but am looking forward to following your blog and using it to learn more about statistical analysis in baseball.

    Peavy and Pierre sure are looking like great signings. What do the stats say about Orlando Hudson? I wanted the Sox to sign him for the past 3 years…

    • 2010/04/30 7:01 AM

      Orlando Hudson is a bargain for the Twins, they could have signed him instead of trading for Teahen and just kept Gordon at 3B and would have been about a win or so better and saved some $ at the same time. Teahen has been impressive however; hopefully he keeps this patient approach.

  2. rrk permalink
    2010/05/04 7:35 AM

    Great series previews, Erik. They make the series more interesting as they play out on the field, regardless of outcome–even if the outcomes are unpleasant.

  3. James permalink
    2010/06/06 12:40 PM

    Hey, I really like what you’re doing here with this site, and I’m wondering if we can expect any new posts or if this is the end of your daily analysis.

  4. James permalink
    2010/07/15 12:06 PM

    Do you plan on ever posting here again?

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