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Series Preview – Rays @ White Sox

2010/04/19

Quick note: I will be out from now until the weekend, it’s one of my busier times of the year.

I think the Rays are the bees knees and I make no bones about it. They’re a well run organization. Imagine what they’d do if they had more of a budget.

Here’s the lineup we’re most likely to see:

Order Name Pos PA Bat Def. Bat/G RS/G
1 Bartlett SS 527 67 1 0.61 0.00
2 Crawford LF 614 85 11 0.65 0.02
3 Zobrist RF 482 67 8 0.64 0.01
4 Longoria 3B 644 106 13 0.74 0.02
5 Pena 1B 577 97 0 0.74 0.00
6 Upton CF 622 80 7 0.55 0.01
7 Burrell DH 523 66 0 0.52 0.00
8 Brignac 2B 509 42 0 0.33 0.00
9 Navarro C 427 40 3 0.37 0.01
Totals 5.15 0.07

The Rays are excellent defensively, they have a balanced lineup, and their rotation stacks up well against ours. We get the benefit of facing the back-end of their rotation, if you can call that a benefit. While Price and Davis are projected as slightly below average starters by CHONE, but they both have the capability to dominannihilate. In game three the Sox face James Shields, so for a team that’s struggling to hit, this could be a challenge. Here’s how the pitching matches up:

Runs allowed per 6 IP
Price 3.34
Davis 3.32
Shields 2.83
Versus
Danks 3.09
Buehrle 2.99
Peavy 2.83

Like pretty much the rest of their team, their bullpen also is pretty solid, so things don’t get a lot easier getting past the starters. Here’s PythagenPat on how the series should shake out, considering the Sox play their “usual” lineup. I’m optimistically forecasting Jones playing over Kotsay.

R RA Sox Defense w%
Game 1 4.85 4.81 -0.02 0.507
Game 2 4.84 4.69 -0.02 0.524
Game 3 4.34 4.52 -0.02 0.472

Here’s the “Kotsay’s playing, oh no” odds:

Game 1 4.69 4.81 -0.02 0.483
Game 2 4.68 4.69 -0.02 0.499
Game 3 4.18 4.52 -0.02 0.445

The difference between a two-for-three series win against a good team and a sweep hinges on whether or not Ozzie puts Mark Kotsay in the lineup.  OK, that’s probably extreme. All of this is based on full seasons scaled down to a three game series, and a lot can happen over a three game series. The greater point remains, though. Kotsay smells.

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One Comment leave one →
  1. The Wizard permalink
    2010/04/19 9:35 PM

    I get the impression you don’t like Mr. Kotsay. Neither do I!

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