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Game Eleven Preview – Sox @ Indians

2010/04/17

I’m going to try something a bit different. I borrowed this idea from Another Cubs Blog, who borrowed it from Replacement Level Yankees blog. I hope I did this right. I had some help from MB21 of of ACB on figuring the numbers, although I’m still working through some kinks. Projections for hitters are CAIRO, for pitchers, CHONE. The average plate appearances per lineup position are factored in, sorta.

White Sox Lineup:

Order Name Pos PA AVG OBP SLG BR RS/G
1 Pierre DH 5 .280 .328 .348 0.49 0.00
2 Beckham 2B 5 .273 .354 .486 0.67 0.00
3 Quentin RF 5 .255 .355 .485 0.65 -0.02
4 Konerko 1B 5 .256 .345 .459 0.58 0.00
5 Jones LF 4 .210 .315 .410 0.49 0.01
6 Pierzynski C 4 .273 .309 .400 0.63 -0.01
7 Rios CF 4 .267 .324 .441 0.51 0.01
8 Teahen 3B 4 .251 .319 .403 0.44 -0.01
9 Alexei SS 4 .271 .319 .411 0.42 0.00
Totals 4.88 -0.02

Indians:

Order Name Pos PA AVG OBP SLG BR RS/G
1 Cabrera SS 5 .273 .342 .393 0.59 0.00
2 Sizemore CF 5 .261 .368 .469 0.73 0.00
3 Choo RF 5 .294 .390 .481 0.75 0.00
4 Hafner DH 5 .254 .365 .435 0.62 0.00
5 Peralta 3B 4 .259 .326 .411 0.52 0.00
6 Valbuena 2B 4 .245 .316 .366 0.44 -0.01
7 Marte 1B 4 .248 .301 .413 0.47 -0.01
8 Marson C 4 .252 .356 .352 0.46 0.00
9 Brantley LF 4 .257 .345 .329 0.43 0.00
Total 5.00 -0.02

BR is batting runs, RS is defensive runs saved.

Pitching:

Pitching RA RA+ Today
Jake Peavy 2.83 114 2.94
Jake Westbrook 3.17 101 3.17

This assumes both teams have average bullpens, until I can figure out a better way to do this. The projection for the starter is for six innings.

Score: Indians 4.2, White Sox 4.5

Win Expectancy: 54%

This assumes that Jake Peavy pitches the way he has been projected to, not the horrible way he that he has. It’s a battle of the Jakes at the Jake!

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