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Delayed Reaction: Game Six


The Pick That Clicked: Andruw Jones +27.9% win probability added
You Can Put it On the Board!: Konerko, Kotsay and Beckham’s homers totaled for +46.7% in win expectancy.
Goat: Mark Teahen -14.7%
Total contributions by the hitters: +24.6%
Total contribution by the pitchers: +25.4%

Is it wrong to use Hawkisms and WPA at the same time? Probably.

It’s probably unfair to call Teahen the goat. Teahen and Pierre were the two biggest drags on the offense today in terms of WPA; the dynamic duo joined to account for -28.6% in win expectancy with their bat. But it was their defense/J.J. Hardy’s boneheaded baserunning that ended the game. I suppose I can’t say I blame Hardy for testing the pop-gun arm of Juan Pierre, but Pierre fielded and got rid of the ball quickly, and Teahen had Hardy by a mile.

I was a tad surprised to see Quentin test Delmon Young’s arm on Jones’ base hit, but I’m glad he did. Q got a good jump off the bat, and the ball fell right in front of Young, so he was positioned pretty well for him to make the throw home. The Fan’s rate Young’s arm as one of the strongest among left fielders, but averageish in terms of accuracy.  His throw was pretty gosh darn accurate, hitting Q in the back of his foot.

Quentin has actually been one of the Sox’s better baserunners, even if he isn’t the most fleet of foot. In 2008 he was worth an extra 3 runs in non-steals baserunning. 1.6 of those runs were from him advancing on hits. (This is according to Baseball Prospectus’ baserunning stats).

I was glad to see Rick Gardenhire call for Jose Mijares in the 8th, because I knew it meant an opportunity for Andruw Jones. After Quentin and Konerko both singled, my thought was “Oh, crud. It’s going to be up to Mark Kotsay to win this game. Why is Ozzie still batting this waste of roster space 5th in the order? I don’t care if he went yard today, he stinks. Grumble, grumble”. Then Gardenhire summoned his mammoth of  a LOOGY, which meant Andruw time. Running Jones’ split regression using his CHONE projections (sorry to go all supernerd here, but it’s kinda my thing) Jones projected wOBA against lefties is .333, close to league average, and a 47 point increase in wOBA over Kotsay against lefties. Jones delivered a hit, Q ran like a wild man, and the rest, as they say, is history.

Stupid stat of the day: The Sox are undefeated this season when they hit 3 homers in a game. MOAR DINGERZ PLZ.

Oh, Mark Buehrle something something. He’s good, even when he’s not so good.

4 Comments leave one →
  1. 2010/04/11 5:20 PM

    the throw hit quentin. otherwise, it would have been quite accurate.

    • 2010/04/11 6:54 PM

      well i’m be a monkey’s uncle. i just watched the replay and you’re right. i was watching on tv, but with the sound turned down low, and i guess for some reason i failed to realize that the ball hit him in the back of his foot. this is why i need to get out of the dark ages and get a tv bigger than 27 inches and with hd. sheesh, i’m glad it’s only you and five other people reading this larry, or that would have been embarrassing.

      • ryan permalink
        2010/04/13 10:45 AM

        Make that 6 other people. I appreciate what you’re doing here. Great analysis.

  2. Christo P. Ney permalink
    2010/04/13 10:34 PM

    Seven. You’re doin’ God’s work, my friend.

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