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Delayed Reaction: Game Three


I guess I’m calling these game recaps delayed reaction, because it usually takes me until late in the afternoon to really be able to write. Stupid job.  I didn’t get to watch the game. I did record it, but I messed around on enough websites today to accidentally see the score, thus spoiling it for me.


Hero: Carlos Quentin:  45.4% win probability added

Goat: J.J. Putz: – 36.9%

Now it is time to air my grievances –

  • Andruw Jones was once a mythically good center fielder, but those days have waved “bye-bye” a long time ago.
  • Your right fielder should have a strong throwing arm, if you can help it. Do you know who thinks Alex Rios has a strong-arm? The fans, that’s who. They rate his arm among the best among right fielders in terms of strength. Rios’ arm has been worth 32 runs above average since breaking into the league.
  • Do you know who is not that great at playing the outfield? Carlos Quentin, that’s who. Over his career he’s -5 runs per 150 games. He was -15 last season in 88 games, although I think there’s some sample size issues going on there. Out of all the outfielders, he’s the weakest link defensively, but he has the bat to DH.
  • Juan Pierre doesn’t have the bat to DH, but his speed helps him be a reasonably good defensive outfielder. His UZR per 150 is +6.

It’s just one game, but seriously, optimize Ozzie.

Wait, I have more beef. What was up with Beckham bunting with Pierre on base in the 9th with the game still tied? The Book says that late in a tie game, bunting the runner over gives the team 78.2% expectancy of scoring a run when bunting with a .350 wOBA+ hitter. There’s no advantage to using a good hitter or a poor hitter to bunt in that situation, because defenses usually are looking for a bunt regardless of who’s hitting, generally. The run expectancy for a >.350 wOBA hitter is 94.4% when you let him swing the bat, a 16.2% difference. I know it’s not just as cut and dried as that, and like I said, I didn’t see the game, but from what I gather the defense was looking bunt all the way, and Guillen took the bat out of one of his best hitter’s hands.

Lastly, the good: Sergio Santos by all accounts looked pretty good. He got 3 swinging strikes out of 9, with 95 MPH heat and a decent change-up.

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