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Delayed Reaction: Game Two

2010/04/08

fangraphs.com

Hero: Paul Konerko +17.2% win probability added
Goats: Mark Teahen -16.4%, Tony Pena -13%

Peavy’s command was not there, and his velocity was down a tick. It’s just one start so I’m not really to pull the fire alarm yet, but it is a bit disconcerting.

In ’07 Peavy was averaging 94 MPH , in ’08, 93 MPH, in ’09, 92 MPH and then last night he was right at about 91. Mike Fast taught us earlier this week that losing a tick in velocity for a starter equals about -.28 RA. I’m willing to give some him the benefit of the doubt; it was cold, it’s his first start of the season, yadda yadda, but my expectations are not high that Peavy will be the ace that he was in San Diego.

For the most part his slider was sharp.  The Indians did a lot of frustrating things, like lean into pitches (I’m looking at you, Mike Redmond) and dink those sliders into the shallow part of outfield.

I was calling for Thornton in the 7th, instead we got Pena’d. I like Tony Pena, but the game was still tied, the leverage index was 2, meaning Thornton time.  Maybe Ozzie wanted to save him for Choo, Sizemore and Hafner, but the situation dictated to otherwise. It’s not as if Thornton couldn’t pitch two innings, relievers used to do it all the time. Trust me on this one. They did.

Even if they had held the tie, it’s not certain the offense was going to ever thaw out last night.

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5 Comments leave one →
  1. 2010/04/08 5:45 PM

    Sorry to ask a dumb question, but in the second graph, the gray lines represent range of velocity and the green dots the average velocity, yes?

  2. The Wizard permalink
    2010/04/08 6:19 PM

    “In ‘07 Peavy was averaging 94 MPH , in ‘08, 93 MPH,”

    where are you getting those numbers from erik?

    fangraphs shows 92.5 for 2007 and 92.1 for 2008

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1051&position=P#pitchtype

    • 2010/04/08 6:38 PM

      His pitch fx page on FanGraphs. Apparently they Gameday and BIS (?) don’t see eye to eye.

      • The Wizard permalink
        2010/04/08 6:53 PM

        oh yes

        fangraphs says “About Pitch Types – All pitch types in this section are provided by Baseball Info Solutions and should not be confused with Major League Baseball’s PitchFx data.”

        but, in fangraphs pitch-f/x if you click ‘Show Averages’ the velocities come down, and are similar to fangraphs bis

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