Andruw Jones - More Hall Worthy Than You Think

Yesterday Andruw Jones celebrated his 33rd birthday in style, hitting two homeruns, including a walk-off solo shot. I’m sort of shocked that he’s only 33, because it seems like Jones has been around forever. Well, he has been. This is Jones’ fifteenth season in the majors.

I think most of us know Andruw’s history; he was Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year twice (’95-’96). He broke into the league at just 19 years old, making the jump from A ball to the big leagues. He was a hero in the World Series that year, and went on to hit a lot of dingers and win a lot of Gold Gloves for Atlanta. He then signed a fat contact with the Dodgers, got fat himself, and his production took a nosedive of epic proportions.

He’s been on the comeback trail since, last season with Texas, and now with the Sox. So far, it’s been so good for Jones on the South Side. At the time of this writing, Jones’ is sporting a nifty .499 wOBA despite a .273 BABIP. Meaningless numbers? Yep, probably. But his ZiPS updated projection calls for a .357 wOBA, which is in line with his career numbers. Maybe the Jones can still resurrect his career into respectability and pad some of his totals, garnering some Hall of Fame support.  Jones isn’t a legendary center fielder like the likes of Cobb, Mays and Mantle, but he’s got an argument.

First, there’s the aspect of his defensive wizardry. Check out his total zone numbers:

Year	Tm	Lg	Age	Pos	G	Inn	Rtot	Rtot/yr	Rtz	Rof
1996	ATL	NL	19	OF	29	224.2	0.3	1.6	0.3	0
1997	ATL	NL	20	OF	147	973.0	27.6	34.0	21.6	6
1998	ATL	NL	21	CF	159	1372.2	35.3	30.9	26.3	9
1999	ATL	NL	22	CF	162	1447.1	35.7	29.6	23.7	12
2000	ATL	NL	23	CF	161	1430.1	25.0	21.0	22.0	3
2001	ATL	NL	24	CF	161	1435.1	26.6	22.2	21.6	5
2002	ATL	NL	25	CF	154	1358.0	19.2	17.0	18.2	1
2003	ATL	NL	26	CF	155	1329.0	18.6	16.8	14.6	4
2004	ATL	NL	27	CF	154	1347.0	17.3	15.4	13.3	4
2005	ATL	NL	28	CF	159	1366.1	17.4	15.3	9.4	8
2006	ATL	NL	29	CF	153	1317.1	19.5	17.8	21.5	-2
2007	ATL	NL	30	CF	154	1346.0	6.4	5.7	-2.6	9
2008	LAD	NL	31	CF	66	496.1	-9.7	-23.5	-8.7	-1
2009	TEX	AL	32	OF	17	148.2	2.7	21.8	2.7	0
15 Seasons				OF	1839	15665.0	241.9	18.5	183.9	58

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/24/2010.

The only outfielders that have as many or more Gold Gloves are Clemente (12), Mays (12), Griffey (10) and Kaline (10). Adding their Total Zone numbers plus their defensive adjustment numbers to capture who was the best defensive outfielder overall. Position adjustments are based on how players do at multiple positions, with separate position calculations by decade. (#’s from Rally’s Historical WAR database) We get -

TZ+Pos. Adj.


Jones
257


Mays
170


Clemente
80


Kaline
22


Griffey Jr.
-15

Um, wow. Jones comes out way ahead. He is truly in a class by himself as far as defensive outfielders go. Dare I say it? Jones was the Brooks Robinson and Ozzie Smith of the outfield. OK, well maybe that is a stretch. Robinson’s Total Zone + Defensive Adjustment is 363. Smith’s is 383. But still, compared to other outfielders, Jones was truly amazing. There are plenty of infielders in the Hall on the merit of their gloves, but no outfielders, even though center field is a pretty demanding position.

But it’s not as if Jones has been a shabby hitter. He has 394 career homers, and six seasons where he’s had a wRC+ of 120 or higher.

Here’s Jones compared to a couple of Hall of Famers (and one guy I will forever stump for). These are players in the non-elite class, but are well above the class of borderliners. Think Kirby Puckett, Larry Doby.

Right now Jones has 58.4 career WAR, 10th best among center fielders. He’ll be hard pressed to catch Edmonds, who is now padding his totals with Milwaukee, but Jones is young enough to hope for a few more seasons of average-ish play in him.  He’s had eight seasons where he’s had 4 WAR or higher, and six seasons with 6 WAR or more, so he’s demonstrated greatness, too.

Andruw Jones is not a no-brainer for the Hall, but he has a more compelling case than I initially thought he would.

(WAR graph via JustinInAz)

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