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Delayed Reaction: Game Seven

2010/04/13

fangraphs.com

The pick that clicked: Mark Teahen +76.4% win probability added (!)
Had a rough night: Jake Peavy: -46.4%
Total contribution by the offense: 48.2%
Total contribution by the pitching: 1.8%

By the time I get around to do these game reviews during the week, so much good stuff has already been said by others, I hope I’m not being redundant. Truthfully, I doubt I can keep this pace up anyway. I have a wife and two wee ones that demand my attention, among other things.

First the bad: Jake Peavy had another rough outing. For all of Hawk’s jawing about Peavy’s failure to mix speeds, Peavy has never really been a pitcher who is all about changing speeds. The opposition generally knows what to expect from Peavy: Four-seam fastball, wicked slider. Peavy just usually has good command of those pitches, and last night, he didn’t. He kept making mistakes by leaving the ball over the plate, and then his velocity is starting to become a bit of a concern. Here are a couple of graphs to illustrate my point.

First his location:

Lots of stuff thrown down the heart of the plate. Second, his fastball speed by pitch count:

You just don’t want to see Peavy dipping in the high eighties too often. His fastest pitch was 92.5 MPH, and he sat at 89.9. No command, no velocity is not a good recipe for Peavy. Color me concerned.

Now the good: Mark Teahen had an absolutely extraordinary night, as did Andruw Jones. Teahen was the living definition of clutch last night, coming through three times in high leverage situations.

  • He hit a 2-out, RBI single to tie the game in the 6th. The leverage was 1.86; the win probability added was 14.6%.
  • Led off the 9th with a game-tying homer against Jays’ closer Jason Frasor. The leverage Index was at 2.9, WPA + 33.3%.
  • Hit a go-ahead RBI triple in the 11th to score Vizquel for 1st. LI 3.43. WPA +32.9%.

So there you have it, folks. Teahen=Clutch, or at least so far early in his White Sox career. Andruw Jones hit two homers and I really hope we get to see more of him, instead of a straight platoon with Kotsay. I’m not saying I’m jumping on the Andruw bandwagon; I’m just for almost anything that keeps Kotsay out of the lineup with any regularity.

Also good, the bullpen (outside of Randy the Pansy) was worth 63.4% in WPA. Sorry Randy, but if you walk the batter with the bases loaded on four straight pitches, you are a pansy.

In search of doing something a little more original today, I present to you opposing pitcher Ricky Romero. He’s a pretty solid pitcher, with four different offerings to give hitters something to think about. Here’s his pitch selection when he’s ahead of the count:

You don’t want to get down two strikes against Romero, because he gives hitters a lot to guess about. He throws his fastball, slider and curve all about equally, and they are all quality pitches, which is a good reason Romero struck out a little over 7 batters per nine last year.

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5 Comments leave one →
  1. 2010/04/13 5:02 PM

    you’ll always have at least an audience of one.

  2. Jim permalink
    2010/04/14 10:57 AM

    Apparently Andy Behrens at Yahoo sports reads you, at least. He linked to this article today.

  3. 2010/04/14 3:45 PM

    Phenomenal breakdown. Great work here.

  4. 2010/04/14 3:56 PM

    2, lol

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