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Projections and Predictions

2010/04/04

It’s Opening Day eve for all of us, and Replacement Level Yankees blog is doing it’s annual Diamond Mind Blowout. SG takes the various projection systems out there – CHONE, Marcel, Oliver, PECOTA and his own (CAIRO), simulates the seasons a thousand times and then gives us the average projected standings. Fun stuff. Here’s how the AL Central shakes out for the various projection systems:

CHONE:

TM W L Div WC
Twins 85 77 32.80% 5.20%
Indians 82 80 25.10% 4.70%
White Sox 80 82 20.30% 4.80%
Tigers 75 87 11.40% 2.50%
Royals 74 88 10.40% 3.10%

Marcel:

TM W L Div WC
Twins 83 79 30.60% 3.90%
White Sox 81 81 23.90% 3.80%
Indians 80 82 19.80% 3.60%
Tigers 78 84 17.60% 3.00%
Royals 71 91 8.10% 1.30%

Oliver:

TM W L Div WC
Twins 84 78 32.80% 3.90%
Indians 81 81 25.50% 3.00%
Tigers 78 84 18.90% 2.20%
White Sox 77 85 17.60% 1.70%
Royals 69 93 5.30% 0.60%

POOPCOTA:

TM W L Div WC
Twins 84 78 31.10% 5.00%
White Sox 79 83 19.60% 2.90%
Indians 79 83 19.10% 2.10%
Tigers 77 85 17.80% 2.30%
Royals 74 88 12.40% 2.50%

and finally, CAIRO:

TM W L Div WC
White Sox 83 79 28.5% 3.0%
Twins 82 80 27.0% 3.2%
Tigers 80 82 21.9% 2.6%
Indians 78 84 17.9% 2.3%
Royals 68 94 4.8% 0.6%

Computers don’t hate Ozzie Guillen, computers hate the White Sox.

Kidding aside, Nathan’s injury did hurt the Twin’s chances, but they’re still the clear favorite to win the division. It’s just now the Twins have less room for error. The Indians are better than a lot of people think. Yep, their pitching will be ugly at times, but they should put runs on the board. It seems like they always do better when no one is thinking about them, and then when they’re everyone’s pick to win, they fail miserably.

It could be a pretty tight race, but I still think the Twins win out. To combine math that someone smarter than me did with my own half-hearted guesses into one post, here’s my predictions:

  1. Twins
  2. Sox
  3. Indians
  4. Tigers
  5. Royals

My meaningless predictions for the rest of the league are:┬áRangers, Yankees with the Red Sox as the Wild Card. It just feels like it’s time for someone else other than the Halos to win that division, but I think I will end up eating my words. Anything can happen over a short series, but my crazy guess is Boston over Texas, and the Yankees over Minnesota. I’ll take Boston to win the AL.

In the NL, I’ll go with Colorado, St. Louis and Philadelphia, with the Braves as the Wild Card. It’s an all Wild Card series, with Boston winning out. Call Vegas now! I’m sure I’ll look back at these and get a good laugh.

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